User Guide for Variance EV Map

User Guide for Variance EV% Map – https://bestforguide.com/variance-ev-map-free-betting-tool/

Overview

• Purpose: Simulate how different EV% edges (e.g., 2%, 3%, 4%, 5%) behave over a sequence of bets at a chosen set of odds. See distribution of final bankrolls and example paths, plus risk KPIs.
• Outputs:
  • KPIs per EV%: Median final bankroll, risk of ruin, average max drawdown, probability of ending down.
  • Final bankroll histograms: Overlapping distributions after all bets.
  • Sample paths: One trajectory per EV% to visualize swings.
  • Legend: Color coding for EV% groups.

Quick start

1. Set Starting bankroll (e.g., 10,000).
2. Choose Bets per run (e.g., 500) and Simulations per EV% (e.g., 3,000).
3. Enter American odds (e.g., -110).
4. List EV% values (e.g., 2,3,4,5).
5. Optional: Set Commission/Vig on wins (percent).
6. Choose Bet sizing and its parameter:
   • Fixed stake: Dollar amount per bet.
   • Percent of bankroll: Fraction of current bankroll each bet.
   • Kelly fraction: Use f × Kelly*, where Kelly* is computed from EV and odds.
7. Optional: Random seed for repeatable results.
8. Click Run simulations. Results will replace previous content. Use Reset graphs to clear displays.

Inputs explained

• Starting bankroll: Initial capital for every simulation path.
• Bets per run: Number of sequential wagers per simulation (time horizon).
• Simulations per EV%: Monte Carlo sample size per EV group; higher = smoother histograms, longer compute time.
• American odds: Applies to all EV groups for comparability. Example: -110 returns 1 + 100/110 on wins; +150 returns 1 + 150/100.
• EV% list: Your assumed edge(s). Example: 1,2,3,4,5. Up to 8 values.
• Commission/Vig on wins %: Reduces payout on wins. Effective decimal odds = 1 + (d − 1) × (1 − commission).
• Bet sizing:
  • Fixed stake: Constant $ stake per bet (capped at current bankroll).
  • Percent of bankroll: Stake = percent × current bankroll (0–100%).
  • Kelly fraction: Stake = f × Kelly* × bankroll, where Kelly* = (b·p − (1−p)) / b, b = d_eff − 1, p derived from EV and d_eff.
• Kelly fraction f: Only used in Kelly mode; 0.5 = half-Kelly, 1 = full Kelly.
• Random seed: Set an integer for reproducibility.

How EV% and win probability relate

• EV_decimal = EV% / 100
• p = (1 + EV_decimal) / d_eff, where d_eff is the effective decimal odds after commission.
• Higher odds (big underdogs) raise variance for the same EV%.

Buttons and controls

• Run simulations: Executes all simulations with current inputs. Disables itself while running; re-enables on completion. Existing graphs are replaced.
• Reset graphs: Clears histograms, sample paths, legend, and KPIs without running new simulations.
• Stop: Attempts to stop the current run mid-compute (best effort).
• Lock chart heights: Keeps canvas heights stable across runs and window resizes. Uncheck to let the charts resize more freely.

Reading the results

• KPIs:
  • Median final bankroll: The 50th percentile of final bankroll outcomes.
  • Risk of ruin: Fraction of simulations that hit zero balance before or by the end.
  • Avg. max drawdown: Average peak-to-trough drop within a path (in dollars).
  • P(ending down): Probability the final bankroll is less than starting bankroll.
• Final bankroll histograms:
  • Overlapping colored distributions, one per EV%. Vertical dashed line marks the starting bankroll.
  • Right-shifted and wider shapes indicate higher expected return and higher variance.
• Sample paths:
  • One representative path per EV%, colored per legend.
  • Dashed horizontal line marks the starting bankroll.

Practical tips

• Start with modest nSims (e.g., 1,000) to iterate quickly, then increase (e.g., 5,000–10,000) for smoother histograms.
• Compare stake sizing strategies:
  • Fixed stake shows linear exposure.
  • Percent of bankroll scales risk and can reduce ruin probabilities for aggressive scenarios.
  • Kelly fraction targets growth but increases path volatility; half-Kelly (0.5) is a common compromise.
• Under heavy tails (big underdogs), expect wider histograms and deeper drawdowns even at the same EV%.
• Use Random seed to compare configuration changes apples-to-apples.

Troubleshooting

• Charts grow/twitch on rerun: Keep Lock chart heights checked. If embedding in a CMS, ensure containers don’t alter padding/margins on updates.
• Slow performance: Reduce Simulations per EV% or Bets per run; or limit EV% list to fewer entries.
• Unexpected ruin rates: Check bet sizing is not overly aggressive; reduce percent or Kelly fraction, or use fixed stake.
• Results look “too good”: Verify EV% assumptions and commission; small changes in EV can imply large p differences at high odds.