EV Betting Simulator — American Odds
Explore profit and variance for bets priced in American odds (+150, -120). Set your EV% edge and simulate bankroll paths, risk of ruin, and drawdowns.
Total capital before betting.
Per simulated run.
More sims = smoother charts, slower compute.
Enter +X or -X. Examples: +150, -120.
%
Expected profit as % of stake. EV% = d_eff·p − 1.
Reduces net payout on wins.
$
– Fixed: constant amount per bet.
– Percent: stake = X% of current bankroll.
– Kelly: stake = f × Kelly fraction; set f (e.g., 0.5 = half-Kelly).
0 = no bet, 1 = full Kelly. Used only in Kelly mode.
Set for reproducible results.
Idle
Expected profit (theoretical)
—
nBets × stake × EV% (baseline; percent/Kelly compound in practice).
Median final bankroll
—
50th percentile across simulations.
Risk of ruin
—
Hit zero bankroll before finishing.
Avg. max drawdown
—
Mean worst peak-to-trough loss.
P(ending down)
—
Finish below the starting bankroll.
Final bankroll distribution
Sample bankroll path
Variance by EV% (per-bet, analytic)
For American odds A, decimal odds d = 1 + A/100 if A>0, else 1 + 100/|A|. Effective odds with commission c% on wins: d_eff = 1 + (d − 1)(1 − c).
Given EV% e, implied win probability p = (1 + e) / d_eff. Variance per bet: Var[X] = p·win^2 + (1-p)·loss^2 − (E[X])^2, with win = (d_eff−1)·stake and loss = stake.
Notes:
– EV% is your edge relative to stake: EV% = d_eff·p − 1. Set American odds and EV%; simulator derives p.
– Kelly sizing uses p and b = d_eff − 1: f* = (b·p − (1−p)) / b. We bet f = user_f × f* of current bankroll.
– Commission reduces payouts on wins only, which lowers p for the same EV%.
