Welcome to our Free to Use Sports Betting Tools.
Please see the bottom of the page for glossary and user guide.
Glossary of terms (what each field means and why it matters)
- Team A / Team B
- Optional name fields so you can label your scenario. No effect on math.
- Plays per game (Team A, Team B)
- How many offensive snaps the team usually runs.
- Why it matters: More plays = more chances to score. Totals grow with play volume.
- Tempo tweak (both teams)
- A quick slider to nudge the combined number of plays up or down, based on coaching style, urgency, rivalry, etc.
- Use when: You expect a faster/slower pace than the season average.
- Offense EPA/play (Team A, Team B)
- EPA = Expected Points Added per play. Positive is good offense, negative is poor.
- Why it matters: It’s a compact measure of overall offensive efficiency.
- Defense EPA/play allowed (Team A, Team B)
- How many expected points a defense gives up per play. Higher is worse defense.
- Why it matters: We blend offense vs defense to project how easily the ball moves.
- Explosive play rate (Team A, Team B)
- Percent of plays that go for big gains (chunk plays).
- Why it matters: Big plays move the score quickly and increase total points and volatility.
- Explosives allowed (Team A, Team B)
- How often each defense gives up big plays.
- Why it matters: A mismatch (explosive offense vs defense that allows explosives) boosts scoring and spreads out results.
- Points per scoring chance (Team A, Team B)
- Average points when a drive reaches roughly the opponent’s 40 (or a “quality” possession).
- Why it matters: Converts “moving the ball” into “finishing with points.”
- Points allowed per scoring chance (Team A, Team B)
- Same idea on defense. Higher means the defense gives up more points on quality drives.
- Venue
- Outdoor neutral, Dome/Ideal (+), Tough surface (−).
- Why it matters: Domes and perfect conditions help scoring. Tough surfaces slightly hinder offense.
- Wind
- Ranges from Calm to 19+ mph. Wind hurts passing and kicking accuracy.
- Why it matters: Wind is the single most reliable weather push toward the Under.
- Precipitation
- Dry to steady rain/snow.
- Why it matters: Rain/snow disrupt timing and reduce scoring a bit.
- Temperature
- Cold or very hot can slightly reduce scoring. Mild is neutral.
- Key injuries impact
- Slider for the net impact of key injuries/returns (especially QB/WR/OL).
- Use small adjustments unless it’s a major QB downgrade.
- Special teams nudge
- Captures hidden points from kickers/returns/field position.
- Keep small; only bump if you have a reason (elite kicker, big return edge).
- Target total (points)
- The sportsbook’s total (e.g., 55.5) you want to price.
- Volatility (how swingy this game is)
- Higher volatility = wider range of possible scores (shootouts, explosive teams, fast tempo).
- Lower volatility = tighter, more predictable totals.
- Game script correlation
- How much both teams move together. Example: If Team A starts fast, does Team B speed up and score more too?
- Higher correlation makes outcomes more “all fast or all slow” rather than mixed.
- Monte Carlo samples
- Number of simulated games. More sims = smoother results but slightly slower.
- Random seed
- Sets the randomness for repeatable results (same inputs, same output).
- Sensitivity ±3 pts
- Shows how your Over probability and fair odds change if the total moves 1.5 or 3 points. Helps gauge how fragile your edge is.
What the tool outputs
- Projected total points
- The model’s average expectation for the combined score.
- P(Over line)
- The chance the final score is at least the target total.
- Fair odds (Over/Under)
- American odds that match your probabilities. Compare these to the book’s prices to see if there’s value.
User guide: how to use it efficiently
- Start with the core drivers
- Enter plays per game for both teams.
- Enter offense EPA/play and defense EPA/play allowed for both teams.
- Click Calculate and note the Projected total.
- Add finishing and explosives
- Enter points per scoring chance (offense) and allowed (defense).
- Enter explosive play rates (offense) and explosives allowed (defense).
- Recalculate. These refine how efficiently yards become points and how often big plays break the game open.
- Layer in context carefully
- Set venue (dome vs outdoor).
- Set wind (biggest weather lever). Only move to strong categories if forecast supports it.
- Add precipitation/temperature only if forecasted.
- Injuries: If a key QB/WR/OL is out, nudge down a few percent; if returning, nudge up a few percent.
- Special teams: Small edge only.
- Tune market/variance last
- Volatility: Use baseline 0.30. Increase for tempo shootouts/explosive mismatches. Decrease for slow, heavy, defensive games.
- Game script correlation: Keep around 0.30–0.40. Raise when both teams tend to mirror each other’s pace or style (two HUNH teams), lower when they’re independent (one team doesn’t change much regardless of opponent).
- Read and compare
- Look at Projected total vs the book’s number.
- Check P(Over) and Fair odds (Over/Under).
- Compare your fair odds to the book:
- If your Fair Over is -115 but the book’s Over is -105, your model says the Over should be priced more expensive, so the edge might be on the Over at -105.
- If your Fair Under is +120 and the book offers +135, the Under might be value.
- Use sensitivity to stress-test your edge
- Turn on the sensitivity table.
- If a 1.5-point move destroys your edge, it’s thin. If your edge survives ±3 points, it’s stronger.
Practical tips (do more with less)
- Don’t overfit one factor. Let plays and EPA do most of the work; finishing/explosives/context are nudges.
- Wind first, everything else second. If wind is 15+ mph, it often matters more than small efficiency differences.
- Be modest with injuries slider unless it’s a QB or multiple OL out/returning.
- Keep tempo tweak small unless you have a strong angle (known HUNH matchup, rivalry pace bump, coordinator tendency).
- Regress extremes in your head: A defense that just faced two elite offenses may look worse than they are—your EPA inputs will even out with the opponent’s offense.
Default ranges and sanity checks
- Plays per game: 55–85 is typical for FBS. Combined plays after tempo: 115–180.
- EPA/play
- Offense: about -0.2 to +0.3 are common; outliers exist but be cautious.
- Defense allowed: -0.15 (elite) to +0.3 (poor) is typical.
- Explosives: 8–20% is a common band.
- Finishing: 3.5–4.8 points per scoring chance covers most teams.
- If your Projected total is below 30 or above 90, re-check your inputs.
Example workflow
- Book total: 55.5
- A fast-paced matchup: plays 75 vs 72, EPA offenses 0.12 and 0.10, defenses 0.05 and 0.03.
- Dome, light injuries boost (+2%), no wind.
- Volatility 0.34, correlation 0.35.
- Result: Projected total ~61, P(Over) ~60%, Fair Over around -150. If the book still deals 55.5 at -110, that’s a potential Over edge.
Common pitfalls
- Double-counting: Don’t crank both explosive rates and volatility too high for the same reason.
- Overreacting to one game or one extreme stat.
- Ignoring pace: If one team is slow and wants to run, it can drag the total down even against a good offense.
- Not adjusting for wind: A 15–20 mph wind can swing your edge.
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Example Scenario Stats
The document provides a hypothetical scenario to illustrate inputs:
Game Script Correlation: 0.35
Target Total: 55.5 points
Plays per Game: Team A: 75, Team B: 72
Offense EPA/Play: Team A: 0.12, Team B: 0.10
Defense EPA/Play Allowed: Team A: 0.05, Team B: 0.03
Venue: Dome
Key Injuries Impact: +2% (light boost)
Wind: None
Volatility: 0.34
